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CGY

Calgary Flames

0-4-0

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

4-1-0

Has last change

Thursday, October 15

10:00 PM ET · T-Mobile Arena

The short version

Before the game

The Flames need a win

The Golden Knights have won three straight. The Flames haven’t won in four. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Calgary’s only real way in is pouncing on loose pucks, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Golden Knights have won three straight. The Flames haven’t won in four. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Calgary’s best hope is pouncing on loose pucks, plus a big night in goal.

It’s strength against strength: the Flames for shot volume, the Golden Knights at keeping shots away. The Golden Knights and the Flames sit at opposite ends for power play.

Who to watch

  • Owns themMitch Marner has a point in six straight games against Calgary, and 14 points in his last seven against them.
  • Hot streakJack Eichel has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakVictor Olofsson has a point in every game this season.
  • Old teamRasmus Andersson faces his old team, Calgary.

  1. Strength against strength

    The Flames are near the top of the league for shot volume, and the Golden Knights are one of the league’s best at keeping shots away. We think the Flames still get theirs.

    The call The Flames take more than the league-average 56.6 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights.

    Calgary 6th for shot volume (63.4 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Vegas 3rd for keeping shots away

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

  2. The Golden Knights’ power play outclasses the Flames’

    The Golden Knights are one of the league’s best for the power play, at the lethal end; the Flames are one of the league’s worst, at the harmless end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Golden Knights’ power play creates more per 60 than the Flames’.

    Power play: Vegas 2nd, Calgary 30th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 5 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Calgary and Vegas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Calgary FlamesVegas Golden KnightsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 5 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Calgary, 5 for Vegas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Calgary: 63.4 shot attempts per 606th of 32

      Calgary: 68.7 shot attempts per 605th of 32

    • Vegas: 61.2 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Vegas: 63.9 shot attempts per 607th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Calgary: a 5.6% chance of scoring on the average shot32nd of 32

      Calgary: a 5.1% chance of scoring on the average shot31st of 32

    • Vegas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot10th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Calgary: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds29th of 32

      Calgary: 3.0% of chances come from rebounds30th of 32

    • Vegas: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Vegas: 16.6% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Calgary: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

      Calgary: 13.2% of chances come right after a turnover4th of 32

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      Vegas: 4.6% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Calgary: 34.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

      Calgary: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

    • Vegas: 36.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

      Vegas: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen7th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Calgary: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet29th of 32

      Calgary: 32.5% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

    • Vegas: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

      Vegas: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Calgary: 61.3 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

      Calgary: 64.7 shot attempts allowed per 6029th of 32

    • Vegas: 51.5 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

      Vegas: 47.6 shot attempts allowed per 605th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Calgary: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

      Calgary: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against15th of 32

    • Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against14th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Calgary: 0.46 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32

      Calgary: 0.59 defensive breakdowns per 6020th of 32

    • Vegas: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 608th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Calgary: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

      Calgary: −2.38 goals saved above expected per 6031st of 32

    • Vegas: +0.03 goals saved above expected per 6030th of 32

      Vegas: −0.35 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Calgary: 85.9 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

      Calgary: 95.2 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

    • Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined24th of 32

      Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Calgary: forecheck score 100 (100 is league average)15th of 32Calgary: 22.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6015th of 32

      Calgary: forecheck score 107 (100 is league average)11th of 32Calgary: 25.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6012th of 32

    • Vegas: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)28th of 32Vegas: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Calgary: hit score 106 (100 is league average)11th of 32Calgary: 28.0 hits recorded per 6011th of 32

      Calgary: hit score 113 (100 is league average)10th of 32Calgary: 32.9 hits recorded per 6010th of 32

    • Vegas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 25.4 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

      Vegas: hit score 91 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 26.3 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Calgary: 43.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six5th of 32

      Calgary: 44.9% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six3rd of 32

    • Vegas: 42.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

      Vegas: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Calgary: 6.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play30th of 32

      Calgary: 4.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play28th of 32

    • Vegas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

      Vegas: 10.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Calgary: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Calgary: 4.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

    • Vegas: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 4.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Calgary: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded3rd of 32

      Calgary: 1.2 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded9th of 32

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Vegas: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Calgary: 0.20 more penalties taken than drawn per 6029th of 32

      Calgary: 1.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6032nd of 32

    • Vegas: 0.30 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 1.18 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Vegas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 5 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Calgary Flames

Vegas Golden Knights

Worth knowing

  • Calgary M. Pospisil has started killing penalties: on the ice for 29% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 2% last season.
  • Vegas R. Andersson is no longer killing penalties: 1% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, down from 48% last season.

Who Vegas is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Vegas group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Calgary’s, named in each box.

Calgary’s lines tonightL1 Frost · Coronato · GridinL2 Strome · Pospisil · HonzekL3 Backlund · Farabee · SharangovichL4 Klapka · Castagna · Suniev

Vegas forward lines against Calgary forward lines

  • L1Stone · Barbashev · EichelCGY L121%CGY L232%CGY L320%CGY L427%
  • L2Karlsson · Marner · HowdenCGY L140%CGY L230%CGY L318%CGY L413%
  • L3Dowd · Gatcomb · BowmanCGY L169%CGY L212%CGY L311%CGY L48%
  • L4Hertl · Lavoie · ConnellyCGY L129%CGY L238%CGY L327%CGY L46%

Vegas defense pairs against Calgary forward lines

  • P1McNabb · TheodoreCGY L139%CGY L221%CGY L324%CGY L416%
  • P2Hanifin · LauzonCGY L143%CGY L231%CGY L312%CGY L415%
  • P3Andersson · WotherspoonCGY L138%CGY L230%CGY L320%CGY L412%

Based on 3 Vegas home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Calgary power play against Vegas penalty kill

  • Calgary power play

    6.5 expected goals per 60 · 30th of 32

  • Vegas penalty kill

    6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 1st of 32

Calgary power play

PP182% of the time

Creates 6.8 expected goals per 60

  • Z. ParekhQuarterback
  • M. CoronatoTrigger
  • M. FrostDistributor
  • M. Gridin
  • J. FarabeeNet-front

PP218% of the time

Creates 6.7 expected goals per 60

  • S. NemecQuarterback
  • M. Tsyplakov
  • R. Strome
  • Y. SharangovichTrigger
  • B. Othmann

 

Where Calgary’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Vegas penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

D. Wolf54 starts · 1618 shots, this season and last

−3.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 807 shots
Medium-danger save %
.849 596 shots
High-danger save %
.721 215 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
54%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. CooleyC. HartA. Hill

C. Hart19 starts · 495 shots, this season and last

−2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 256 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 185 shots
High-danger save %
.630 54 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.2
Quality starts
63%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: −3.3 goals saved above expected in 54 starts
    • C. Hart: −2.6 goals saved above expected in 19 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 29.7 shots faced per 60
    • C. Hart: 24.8 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • C. Hart: 0.2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 69 seconds between shots
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 54% of the time
    • C. Hart: a quality start 63% of the time

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

D. Wolf2 starts · 59 shots, this season

−5.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.958 24 shots
Medium-danger save %
.769 26 shots
High-danger save %
.444 9 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
1
Quality starts
0%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesD. WolfD. CooleyC. HartA. Hill

C. Hart3 starts · 73 shots, this season

−0.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 39 shots
Medium-danger save %
.741 27 shots
High-danger save %
.857 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • D. Wolf: −5.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
    • C. Hart: −0.9 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • D. Wolf: 29.5 shots faced per 60
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • D. Wolf: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • D. Wolf: 1 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • D. Wolf: a typical wait of 66 seconds between shots
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • D. Wolf: a quality start 0% of the time
    • C. Hart: a quality start 67% of the time

D. Wolf, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
CalgaryVegasLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.3%52.1%
  • Power play17.8%21.4%
  • Rebound7%9.7%
  • Empty net6.1%4.7%
  • Off a turnover3.8%4.2%
  • Goalie pulled0.9%3.6%
  • Shorthanded4.7%3.1%
  • Off a faceoff win2.3%1.1%

213 Calgary goals and 359 Vegas goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play66.7%47.4%
  • Power play33.3%26.3%
  • Rebound0%10.5%
  • Empty net0%5.3%
  • Off a turnover0%5.3%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%5.3%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

6 Calgary goals and 19 Vegas goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Calgary Flames · Vegas Golden Knights