Real data. Everything on this page is computed from actual games.
Spare Line Change
Numbers from
Hits and takeaways
at

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

4-1-0

NSH

Nashville Predators

2-1-1

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

8:45 PM ET · Bridgestone Arena

The short version

Before the game

Theodore’s favourite opponent

The Predators are 2-1-1. The Golden Knights have won three straight. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Nashville has home ice. Nashville’s best hope is keeping dangerous shots away, plus a big night in goal.

The Predators are 2-1-1. The Golden Knights have won three straight. Vegas has controlled the play far better over recent games and Nashville has home ice. Nashville’s only real way in is keeping dangerous shots away, and they would need a near-perfect night.

The Golden Knights shoot a lot, and the Predators give up plenty. The Golden Knights and the Predators sit at opposite ends for shots from defensemen.

Who to watch

  • Owns themShea Theodore has a point in seven straight games against Nashville.
  • Haunts themMavrik Bourque has four goals in six games against Vegas since 2023-24, most of them with Dallas.
  • Hot streakJack Eichel has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakSteven Stamkos has a point in every game this season.

  1. The Predators give up shots, and the Golden Knights take them

    The Golden Knights shoot a lot, and the Predators are near the bottom of the league at keeping shots down. Look for a big shot total.

    The call The Golden Knights take at least their usual 61.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5.

    Vegas 7th for shot volume (61.2 shot attempts per 60 at 5-on-5) · Nashville 27th for shot suppression

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 4 games this season

  2. Active D against forward-led

    On shots from defensemen, Vegas is near the top of the league and Nashville is near the bottom of the league. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Golden Knights’ defensemen take a bigger share of the team’s shot attempts than the Predators’.

    Shots from defensemen: Vegas 6th, Nashville 25th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 5 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Vegas and Nashville play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Vegas Golden KnightsNashville PredatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 5 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 5 games for Vegas, 4 for Nashville. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Vegas: 61.2 shot attempts per 607th of 32

      Vegas: 63.9 shot attempts per 607th of 32

    • Nashville: 51.5 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: 46.5 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Vegas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot16th of 32

    • Nashville: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Vegas: 10.3% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

      Vegas: 16.6% of chances come from rebounds6th of 32

    • Nashville: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

      Nashville: 13.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Vegas: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover31st of 32

      Vegas: 4.6% of chances come right after a turnover24th of 32

    • Nashville: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Nashville: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Vegas: 36.2% of shot attempts come from defensemen6th of 32

      Vegas: 36.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen8th of 32

    • Nashville: 32.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

      Nashville: 31.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Vegas: 30.9% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

      Vegas: 31.5% of shots come from within 20 feet19th of 32

    • Nashville: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

      Nashville: 33.3% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Vegas: 51.5 shot attempts allowed per 603rd of 32

      Vegas: 47.6 shot attempts allowed per 604th of 32

    • Nashville: 60.4 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: 66.0 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Vegas: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

      Vegas: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

    • Nashville: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Vegas: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 609th of 32

      Vegas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

    • Nashville: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Nashville: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Vegas: +0.03 goals saved above expected per 6030th of 32

      Vegas: −0.35 goals saved above expected per 6022nd of 32

    • Nashville: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

      Nashville: +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined25th of 32

      Vegas: 79.3 shots per 60, both teams combined17th of 32

    • Nashville: 84.3 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Nashville: 85.4 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Vegas: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)28th of 32Vegas: 19.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

      Vegas: forecheck score 81 (100 is league average)26th of 32Vegas: 19.4 forecheck plays recorded per 6028th of 32

    • Nashville: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 32Nashville: 20.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

      Nashville: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 19.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Vegas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 25.4 hits recorded per 6022nd of 32

      Vegas: hit score 91 (100 is league average)20th of 32Vegas: 26.3 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

    • Nashville: hit score 84 (100 is league average)29th of 32Nashville: 22.8 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: hit score 74 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 22.6 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Vegas: 42.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six16th of 32

      Vegas: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

    • Nashville: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

      Nashville: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Vegas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

      Vegas: 10.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play1st of 32

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Nashville: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Vegas: 6.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

      Vegas: 4.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Nashville: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Vegas: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded15th of 32

      Vegas: 0.8 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded17th of 32

    • Nashville: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Nashville: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Vegas: 0.30 more penalties drawn than taken per 601st of 32

      Vegas: 1.18 more penalties drawn than taken per 603rd of 32

    • Nashville: 0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

      Nashville: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Nashville is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (5 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Vegas Golden Knights

Nashville Predators

Worth knowing

  • Vegas R. Andersson is no longer killing penalties: 1% of the team’s shorthanded time in 5 games, down from 48% last season.
  • Nashville M. Wood has started killing penalties: on the ice for 39% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Nashville N. Hague is no longer killing penalties: 5% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 42% last season.

Who Nashville is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Nashville group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Vegas’s, named in each box.

Vegas’s lines tonightL1 Stone · Barbashev · EichelL2 Karlsson · Marner · HowdenL3 Dowd · Gatcomb · BowmanL4 Hertl · Lavoie · Connelly

Nashville forward lines against Vegas forward lines

  • L1Forsberg · Hoglander · WoodVGK L124%VGK L234%VGK L312%VGK L430%
  • L2Stamkos · O'Reilly · KerfootVGK L145%VGK L213%VGK L333%VGK L49%
  • L3Colton · Drury · EdstromVGK L144%VGK L26%VGK L333%VGK L418%
  • L4Marchessault · Bourque · SchaeferVGK L115%VGK L230%VGK L325%VGK L430%

Nashville defense pairs against Vegas forward lines

  • P1Skjei · PerbixVGK L141%VGK L211%VGK L327%VGK L421%
  • P2Josi · HagueVGK L129%VGK L224%VGK L330%VGK L417%
  • P3Wilsby · TrudeauVGK L118%VGK L237%VGK L37%VGK L438%

Based on 2 Nashville home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Vegas power play against Nashville penalty kill

  • Vegas power play

    9.0 expected goals per 60 · 2nd of 32

  • Nashville penalty kill

    7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 · 19th of 32

Vegas power play

PP172% of the time

Creates 9.3 expected goals per 60

  • S. TheodoreQuarterback
  • J. Eichel
  • T. HertlTrigger
  • M. Marner
  • M. StoneDistributor

PP228% of the time

Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60

  • R. AnderssonQuarterback
  • T. Connelly
  • B. BowmanTrigger
  • W. Karlsson
  • V. Olofsson

 

Where Vegas’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Nashville penalty kill

Starts the kill

  • R. O'Reilly9 of 10 kills · 0:56 a kill
  • J. Drury8 of 10 kills · 1:02 a kill · takes the draw
  • M. Wood10 of 10 kills · 0:42 a kill · takes the draw
  • B. SkjeiD10 of 10 kills · 1:10 a kill
  • N. PerbixD9 of 10 kills · 1:05 a kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

C. Hart19 starts · 495 shots, this season and last

−2.6 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.961 256 shots
Medium-danger save %
.870 185 shots
High-danger save %
.630 54 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.8
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.2
Quality starts
63%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. Saros

J. Saros60 starts · 1830 shots, this season and last

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 914 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 620 shots
High-danger save %
.686 296 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
52%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −2.6 goals saved above expected in 19 starts
    • J. Saros: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.8 shots faced per 60
    • J. Saros: 29.9 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0.2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Saros: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 73 seconds between shots
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 63% of the time
    • J. Saros: a quality start 52% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

C. Hart3 starts · 73 shots, this season

−0.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 39 shots
Medium-danger save %
.741 27 shots
High-danger save %
.857 7 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.7
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesC. HartA. HillJ. Saros

J. Saros4 starts · 130 shots, this season

+1.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.986 71 shots
Medium-danger save %
.860 43 shots
High-danger save %
.750 16 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
75%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • C. Hart: −0.9 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Saros: +1.9 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • C. Hart: 24.7 shots faced per 60
    • J. Saros: 32.1 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • C. Hart: the average shot he faces has a 6.7% chance of going in
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • C. Hart: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Saros: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • C. Hart: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • C. Hart: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Saros: a quality start 75% of the time

C. Hart, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
VegasNashvilleLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play52.1%50.8%
  • Power play21.4%23.2%
  • Rebound9.7%7.1%
  • Empty net4.7%7.1%
  • Off a turnover4.2%5.1%
  • Goalie pulled3.6%2.4%
  • Shorthanded3.1%2.8%
  • Off a faceoff win1.1%1.6%

359 Vegas goals and 254 Nashville goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play47.4%33.3%
  • Power play26.3%41.7%
  • Rebound10.5%8.3%
  • Empty net5.3%16.7%
  • Off a turnover5.3%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded5.3%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

19 Vegas goals and 12 Nashville goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Vegas Golden Knights · Nashville Predators