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NYR

New York Rangers

4-2-0

CBJ

Columbus Blue Jackets

2-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 17

7:00 PM ET · Nationwide Arena

The short version

Before the game

Coyle’s line gets the soft minutes

The Rangers come in at 4-2-0, the Blue Jackets at 2-1-0. Columbus has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. The Rangers’ way back in is a power play that gets going.

The Rangers come in at 4-2-0, the Blue Jackets at 2-1-0. Columbus has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. The Rangers’ best way through is a power play that gets going.

At home, Rick Bowness likes to pick matchups, so watch who goes out against the Rangers’ second line. The Rangers’ power play has a soft target in the Blue Jackets’ kill.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themAdam Fantilli has seven goals in nine games against the Rangers since 2023-24.
  • Haunts themEeli Tolvanen has four goals in six games against Columbus since 2023-24, most of them with Seattle.
  • Still outI. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. Coyle’s line gets the soft minutes

    At home, the Blue Jackets keep sending Coyle’s line (Coyle, Olivier and Sillinger) out against opponents’ second lines, far more often than chance would. That’s Rick Bowness chasing an easier matchup for the team’s scorers. Tonight the Rangers’ second line is Miller, Dorofeyev and Kartye.

    The call The Blue Jackets’ L1 (Coyle, Olivier and Sillinger) spends at least 42% of its 5-on-5 time against the Rangers’ second line.

    At home: 42% of this group’s 5-on-5 time against second lines, about 24% with no line matching

    Who plays against whom · Columbus home games this season · 3 games, 34 minutes for this group at 5-on-5

  2. Special teams lean toward the Rangers

    The Blue Jackets’ penalty kill is one of the league’s worst, and the Rangers’ power play is one of the league’s best. Discipline matters more than usual for the Blue Jackets tonight.

    The call The Rangers’ power play creates at least their usual 8.4 expected goals per 60.

    NY Rangers 5th for power play (8.4 expected goals per 60) · Columbus 29th for penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 6 and 3 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How NY Rangers and Columbus play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

New York RangersColumbus Blue JacketsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 6 and 3 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 6 games for NY Rangers, 3 for Columbus. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • NY Rangers: 51.0 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

      NY Rangers: 49.0 shot attempts per 6026th of 32

    • Columbus: 58.2 shot attempts per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: 54.8 shot attempts per 6018th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • NY Rangers: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot14th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 7.3% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

    • Columbus: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot11th of 32

      Columbus: a 7.8% chance of scoring on the average shot1st of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • NY Rangers: 10.0% of chances come from rebounds24th of 32

      NY Rangers: 6.4% of chances come from rebounds25th of 32

    • Columbus: 10.2% of chances come from rebounds17th of 32

      Columbus: 23.0% of chances come from rebounds2nd of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • NY Rangers: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover8th of 32

      NY Rangers: 10.3% of chances come right after a turnover12th of 32

    • Columbus: 7.2% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

      Columbus: 1.7% of chances come right after a turnover32nd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • NY Rangers: 35.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen10th of 32

      NY Rangers: 34.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen13th of 32

    • Columbus: 36.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen5th of 32

      Columbus: 36.0% of shot attempts come from defensemen9th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • NY Rangers: 32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet3rd of 32

      NY Rangers: 37.9% of shots come from within 20 feet1st of 32

    • Columbus: 30.3% of shots come from within 20 feet20th of 32

      Columbus: 32.3% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • NY Rangers: 55.9 shot attempts allowed per 6014th of 32

      NY Rangers: 53.1 shot attempts allowed per 6013th of 32

    • Columbus: 57.3 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

      Columbus: 56.6 shot attempts allowed per 6020th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • NY Rangers: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against14th of 32

      NY Rangers: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against23rd of 32

    • Columbus: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against9th of 32

      Columbus: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against16th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • NY Rangers: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.42 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

    • Columbus: 0.38 defensive breakdowns per 606th of 32

      Columbus: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • NY Rangers: +0.21 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

      NY Rangers: +1.15 goals saved above expected per 604th of 32

    • Columbus: +0.13 goals saved above expected per 6010th of 32

      Columbus: −0.03 goals saved above expected per 6020th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • NY Rangers: 77.2 shots per 60, both teams combined31st of 32

      NY Rangers: 70.0 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

    • Columbus: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined10th of 32

      Columbus: 78.1 shots per 60, both teams combined20th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • NY Rangers: forecheck score 120 (100 is league average)3rd of 32NY Rangers: 27.4 forecheck plays recorded per 604th of 32

      NY Rangers: forecheck score 119 (100 is league average)7th of 32NY Rangers: 29.1 forecheck plays recorded per 608th of 32

    • Columbus: forecheck score 107 (100 is league average)10th of 32Columbus: 23.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

      Columbus: forecheck score 106 (100 is league average)12th of 32Columbus: 24.0 forecheck plays recorded per 6014th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • NY Rangers: hit score 120 (100 is league average)3rd of 32NY Rangers: 32.0 hits recorded per 603rd of 32

      NY Rangers: hit score 115 (100 is league average)9th of 32NY Rangers: 33.5 hits recorded per 609th of 32

    • Columbus: hit score 103 (100 is league average)14th of 32Columbus: 25.7 hits recorded per 6020th of 32

      Columbus: hit score 108 (100 is league average)11th of 32Columbus: 29.1 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • NY Rangers: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

      NY Rangers: 42.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six20th of 32

    • Columbus: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six13th of 32

      Columbus: 43.4% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six11th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • NY Rangers: 8.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play5th of 32

      NY Rangers: 9.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play4th of 32

    • Columbus: 7.4 expected goals per 60 on the power play17th of 32

      Columbus: 7.1 expected goals per 60 on the power play15th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • NY Rangers: 7.7 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded21st of 32

      NY Rangers: 5.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

    • Columbus: 8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      Columbus: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • NY Rangers: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded29th of 32

    • Columbus: 0.9 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded18th of 32

      Columbus: 0.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded20th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • NY Rangers: 0.22 more penalties taken than drawn per 6030th of 32

      NY Rangers: 0.50 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

    • Columbus: 0.13 more penalties taken than drawn per 6025th of 32

      Columbus: 0.32 more penalties taken than drawn per 6020th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Columbus is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (6 and 3 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

New York Rangers

Columbus Blue Jackets

Worth knowing

  • NY Rangers S. Durzi has started killing penalties: on the ice for 44% of the team’s shorthanded time in 6 games, up from 7% last season.
  • Columbus Z. Werenski is out long term (shoulder injury), reported after he played in their last game. He is one of their most valuable skaters.
  • Columbus I. Provorov is on injured reserve (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman. C. Soucy has taken his spot beside D. Mateychuk.
  • Columbus D. Severson returned in their last game after missing 2 games.
  • Columbus D. Heinen has started killing penalties: on the ice for 32% of the team’s shorthanded time in 3 games, up from 5% last season.

Who Columbus is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Columbus group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are NY Rangers’s, named in each box.

NY Rangers’s lines tonightL1 Zibanejad · Lafrenière · PerreaultL2 Miller · Dorofeyev · KartyeL3 Tolvanen · Cuylle · LabaL4 Bjorkstrand · Chmelar · Beaudoin

Columbus forward lines against NY Rangers forward lines

  • L1Coyle · Olivier · SillingerNYR L136%NYR L242%NYR L313%NYR L49%
  • L2Johnson · Knies · FantilliNYR L134%NYR L218%NYR L328%NYR L420%
  • L3Monahan · Nichushkin · VoronkovNYR L126%NYR L216%NYR L334%NYR L425%
  • L4Heinen · Garland · LombergNYR L130%NYR L219%NYR L329%NYR L421%

Columbus defense pairs against NY Rangers forward lines

  • P1Werenski · MateychukNYR L133%NYR L227%NYR L323%NYR L417%
  • P2Gudbranson · AndraeNYR L129%NYR L216%NYR L332%NYR L422%
  • P3Soucy · ChristiansenNYR L12%NYR L269%NYR L320%NYR L410%

Based on 3 Columbus home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

NY Rangers power play against Columbus penalty kill

  • NY Rangers power play

    8.4 expected goals per 60 · 5th of 32

  • Columbus penalty kill

    8.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 29th of 32

NY Rangers power play

PP170% of the time

Creates 8.6 expected goals per 60

  • A. FoxQuarterback
  • A. LafrenièreDistributor
  • M. ZibanejadTrigger
  • P. Dorofeyev
  • J. MillerNet-front

PP229% of the time

Creates 7.7 expected goals per 60

  • S. DurziQuarterback
  • W. CuylleTrigger
  • G. PerreaultDistributor
  • E. Tolvanen
  • O. Bjorkstrand

 

Where NY Rangers’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Columbus penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

I. Shesterkin54 starts · 1534 shots, this season and last

+27.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.976 777 shots
Medium-danger save %
.890 543 shots
High-danger save %
.743 214 shots
Shots faced per 60
28
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. ShesterkinD. GarandJ. GreavesC. Talbot

J. Greaves57 starts · 1596 shots, this season and last

+19.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.967 844 shots
Medium-danger save %
.872 517 shots
High-danger save %
.766 235 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.2
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.34
Quality starts
65%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Shesterkin: +27.9 goals saved above expected in 54 starts
    • J. Greaves: +19.4 goals saved above expected in 57 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Shesterkin: 28 shots faced per 60
    • J. Greaves: 28.2 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.8% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Shesterkin: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Greaves: 0.34 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 72 seconds between shots
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 65% of the time

I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

I. Shesterkin4 starts · 109 shots, this season

+4.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.978 45 shots
Medium-danger save %
.918 49 shots
High-danger save %
.800 15 shots
Shots faced per 60
24.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesI. ShesterkinD. GarandJ. GreavesC. Talbot

J. Greaves2 starts · 57 shots, this season

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.964 28 shots
Medium-danger save %
.762 21 shots
High-danger save %
.875 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
28.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • I. Shesterkin: +4.7 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • J. Greaves: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 2 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • I. Shesterkin: 24.4 shots faced per 60
    • J. Greaves: 28.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • I. Shesterkin: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
    • J. Greaves: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • I. Shesterkin: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Greaves: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • I. Shesterkin: a typical wait of 85 seconds between shots
    • J. Greaves: a typical wait of 67 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • I. Shesterkin: a quality start 100% of the time
    • J. Greaves: a quality start 0% of the time

I. Shesterkin, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Greaves, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
NY RangersColumbusLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play55%60.4%
  • Power play22.7%15.7%
  • Rebound6.8%6.7%
  • Empty net6.8%6.7%
  • Off a turnover3.2%4.7%
  • Goalie pulled2.4%1.2%
  • Shorthanded2%2%
  • Off a faceoff win1.2%2.7%

251 NY Rangers goals and 255 Columbus goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play35.3%55.6%
  • Power play23.5%22.2%
  • Rebound5.9%0%
  • Empty net29.4%11.1%
  • Off a turnover5.9%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%11.1%

17 NY Rangers goals and 9 Columbus goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: New York Rangers · Columbus Blue Jackets