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NSH

Nashville Predators

2-1-1

OTT

Ottawa Senators

3-1-0

Has last change

Saturday, October 10

7:00 PM ET · Canadian Tire Centre

The short version

Before the game

The Senators hit; the Predators mostly don’t

The Predators come in at 2-1-1, the Senators at 3-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Nashville’s way back in is a power play that gets going.

The Predators come in at 2-1-1, the Senators at 3-1-0. Ottawa has controlled the play far better over recent games and has home ice. Nashville can pull it off if their power play gets going.

The Senators and the Predators sit at opposite ends for physicality.

Who to watch

  • Haunts themJonathan Marchessault has six goals in six games against Ottawa since 2023-24.
  • Hot streakSteven Stamkos has a point in every game this season.
  • Hot streakRoman Josi has a point in every game this season.
  • Still outArtem Zub hasn’t played yet this season.

  1. The Senators hit; the Predators mostly don’t

    On physicality, Ottawa is one of the league’s best and Nashville is one of the league’s worst. That’s about as far apart as two teams get.

    The call The Senators hit more than the Predators in the close stretches of the game.

    Physicality: Ottawa 3rd, Nashville 29th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. The Senators hunt better looks than the Predators

    The Senators are near the top of the league for shot quality, at the dangerous end; the Predators are one of the league’s worst, at the hopeful end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Senators’ shots are more dangerous on average than the Predators’.

    Shot quality: Ottawa 7th, Nashville 29th

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Nashville and Ottawa play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Nashville PredatorsOttawa SenatorsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Nashville, 4 for Ottawa. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Nashville: 51.5 shot attempts per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: 46.5 shot attempts per 6028th of 32

    • Ottawa: 54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32

      Ottawa: 51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Nashville: a 6.0% chance of scoring on the average shot29th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot25th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Nashville: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds10th of 32

      Nashville: 13.3% of chances come from rebounds11th of 32

    • Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32

      Ottawa: 13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Nashville: 7.3% of chances come right after a turnover18th of 32

      Nashville: 6.7% of chances come right after a turnover21st of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32

      Ottawa: 14.3% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Nashville: 32.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen25th of 32

      Nashville: 31.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen26th of 32

    • Ottawa: 33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32

      Ottawa: 29.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Nashville: 31.3% of shots come from within 20 feet7th of 32

      Nashville: 33.3% of shots come from within 20 feet13th of 32

    • Ottawa: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet16th of 32

      Ottawa: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet22nd of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Nashville: 60.4 shot attempts allowed per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: 66.0 shot attempts allowed per 6030th of 32

    • Ottawa: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32

      Ottawa: 58.3 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Nashville: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against13th of 32

      Nashville: a 5.7% chance of scoring on the average shot against5th of 32

    • Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32

      Ottawa: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Nashville: 0.41 defensive breakdowns per 6016th of 32

      Nashville: 0.31 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: 0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6015th of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Nashville: +0.09 goals saved above expected per 6018th of 32

      Nashville: +0.48 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

    • Ottawa: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32

      Ottawa: +1.11 goals saved above expected per 605th of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Nashville: 84.3 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32

      Nashville: 85.4 shots per 60, both teams combined7th of 32

    • Ottawa: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined26th of 32

      Ottawa: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Nashville: forecheck score 87 (100 is league average)26th of 32Nashville: 20.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6025th of 32

      Nashville: forecheck score 75 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 19.6 forecheck plays recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Ottawa: forecheck score 118 (100 is league average)5th of 32Ottawa: 27.9 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32

      Ottawa: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)9th of 32Ottawa: 29.9 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Nashville: hit score 84 (100 is league average)29th of 32Nashville: 22.8 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

      Nashville: hit score 74 (100 is league average)28th of 32Nashville: 22.6 hits recorded per 6027th of 32

    • Ottawa: hit score 118 (100 is league average)3rd of 32Ottawa: 32.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32

      Ottawa: hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 35.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Nashville: 41.5% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32

      Nashville: 41.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six22nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six27th of 32

      Ottawa: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals per 60 on the power play12th of 32

      Nashville: 8.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play9th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32

      Ottawa: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Nashville: 7.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded19th of 32

      Nashville: 8.5 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

    • Ottawa: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Nashville: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded25th of 32

      Nashville: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded32nd of 32

    • Ottawa: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32

      Ottawa: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Nashville: 0.02 more penalties drawn than taken per 6015th of 32

      Nashville: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6014th of 32

    • Ottawa: 0.17 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32

      Ottawa: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Ottawa is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Nashville Predators

Ottawa Senators

Worth knowing

  • Nashville M. Wood has started killing penalties: on the ice for 39% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 0% last season.
  • Nashville N. Hague is no longer killing penalties: 5% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, down from 42% last season.
  • Ottawa A. Zub has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Sanderson is out and has missed the last 3 games. He is a top-pair defenseman.
  • Ottawa J. Spence has started killing penalties: on the ice for 41% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 4% last season.

Who Ottawa is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Ottawa group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Nashville’s, named in each box.

Nashville’s lines tonightL1 Forsberg · Hoglander · WoodL2 Stamkos · O'Reilly · KerfootL3 Colton · Drury · EdstromL4 Marchessault · Bourque · Schaefer

Ottawa forward lines against Nashville forward lines

  • L1Giroux · Amadio · PintoNSH L15%NSH L269%NSH L320%NSH L47%
  • L2Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundNSH L15%NSH L244%NSH L345%NSH L47%
  • L3Foegele · Batherson · StützleNSH L123%NSH L256%NSH L311%NSH L49%
  • L4Cousins · Hodgson · HallidayNSH L10%NSH L236%NSH L364%NSH L40%

Ottawa defense pairs against Nashville forward lines

  • P1Chabot · SpenceNSH L116%NSH L254%NSH L319%NSH L411%
  • P2Kleven · YakemchukNSH L111%NSH L270%NSH L312%NSH L47%
  • P3Matinpalo · StanleyNSH L16%NSH L218%NSH L374%NSH L42%

Based on 1 Ottawa home game this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Nashville power play against Ottawa penalty kill

  • Nashville power play

    7.5 expected goals per 60 · 12th of 32

  • Ottawa penalty kill

    7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 7th of 32

Nashville power play

PP177% of the time

Creates 8.3 expected goals per 60

  • R. JosiQuarterback
  • F. Forsberg
  • S. StamkosTrigger
  • R. O'ReillyDistributor
  • M. Wood

PP223% of the time

Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60

  • R. UfkoQuarterback
  • J. MarchessaultTrigger
  • A. Kerfoot
  • M. Bourque
  • R. Colton

 

Where Nashville’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Ottawa penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

J. Saros60 starts · 1830 shots, this season and last

+3.7 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 914 shots
Medium-danger save %
.877 620 shots
High-danger save %
.686 296 shots
Shots faced per 60
29.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
52%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SarosL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark50 starts · 1266 shots, this season and last

−1.2 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.980 643 shots
Medium-danger save %
.881 438 shots
High-danger save %
.627 185 shots
Shots faced per 60
25
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.32
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Saros: +3.7 goals saved above expected in 60 starts
    • L. Ullmark: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Saros: 29.9 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Saros: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Saros: a quality start 52% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 62% of the time

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Saros4 starts · 130 shots, this season

+1.9 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.986 71 shots
Medium-danger save %
.860 43 shots
High-danger save %
.750 16 shots
Shots faced per 60
32.1
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.25
Quality starts
75%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesJ. SarosL. UllmarkS. Ersson

L. Ullmark3 starts · 68 shots, this season

+4.8 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 31 shots
Medium-danger save %
.935 31 shots
High-danger save %
.833 6 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • J. Saros: +1.9 goals saved above expected in 4 starts
    • L. Ullmark: +4.8 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • J. Saros: 32.1 shots faced per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 25.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • J. Saros: the average shot he faces has a 6.5% chance of going in
    • L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • J. Saros: 0.25 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • J. Saros: a typical wait of 75 seconds between shots
    • L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • J. Saros: a quality start 75% of the time
    • L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time

J. Saros, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
NashvilleOttawaLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play50.8%53.4%
  • Power play23.2%22.6%
  • Rebound7.1%7.2%
  • Empty net7.1%6.5%
  • Off a turnover5.1%4.1%
  • Goalie pulled2.4%2.4%
  • Shorthanded2.8%2.4%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%1.4%

254 Nashville goals and 292 Ottawa goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play33.3%58.3%
  • Power play41.7%25%
  • Rebound8.3%8.3%
  • Empty net16.7%0%
  • Off a turnover0%0%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%8.3%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

12 Nashville goals and 12 Ottawa goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Nashville Predators · Ottawa Senators