Monday, October 12
7:00 PM ET · Prudential Center
The short version
Before the game
Best against best
The Senators come in at 3-1-0, the Devils at 2-2-0. Ottawa has had more of the chances over recent games and New Jersey has home ice. Not by much, though: Ottawa can make it interesting if they get good looks.
The Senators come in at 3-1-0, the Devils at 2-2-0. Ottawa has had more of the chances over recent games and New Jersey has home ice. Ottawa can tip it if they get good looks.
It’s strength against strength: the Devils for the power play, the Senators at the penalty kill. Don’t read much into Allen’s record against the Senators.
Who to watch
- Still outArtem Zub hasn’t played yet this season.
- Still outC. Brown is out and hasn’t played yet this season.
- Slow startAnthony Mantha is still looking for his first goal of the season.
Best against best
The Devils are near the top of the league for the power play, and the Senators are near the top of the league at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Devils’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.
The call The Devils’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.5 expected goals per 60 against the Senators.
New Jersey 7th for the power play (8.2 expected goals per 60) · Ottawa 7th for the penalty kill
Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season
Allen’s rough record against the Senators is a coincidence
Since 2023-24, Allen has been shaky against the Senators, well below his usual. Fans love a pattern like this, but we checked three seasons of them and they predicted nothing. Expect the usual Allen.
The call If Allen starts, his save percentage lands closer to his usual .903 than to his .871 against the Senators.
5 starts against Ottawa: .871 save percentage · .903 against everyone else
Goalie starts since 2023-24 · 5 against Ottawa, 2,874 shots against everyone else
The Devils give up good looks, and the Senators take them
The Senators make their shots count, and the Devils are near the bottom of the league at preventing dangerous shots. Expect the Senators to get some real chances.
The call The Senators’ average shot has at least their usual 6.6% chance of going in.
Ottawa 7th for shot quality (a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot) · New Jersey 26th for preventing dangerous shots
Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season
The Senators feed on mistakes, and the Devils make them
The Senators turn stolen pucks into chances, and the Devils are near the bottom of the league at avoiding breakdowns. A sloppy pass or two could cost the Devils.
The call The Senators get at least their usual 7.6% of their 5-on-5 chances right after winning the puck.
Ottawa 9th for chances off turnovers (7.6% of their chances come right after winning the puck) · New Jersey 25th for avoiding breakdowns
Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season
These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.
Style fingerprints
How Ottawa and New Jersey play, trait by trait, on the same scales.
Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.
This season only: 4 games for Ottawa, 4 for New Jersey. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.
The biggest differences
- PhysicalityFinesseBruising
Ottawa: hit score 117 (100 is league average)4th of 32Ottawa: 32.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32
Ottawa: hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 35.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32
New Jersey: hit score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6030th of 32
New Jersey: hit score 76 (100 is league average)27th of 32New Jersey: 20.7 hits recorded per 6029th of 32
- Second chancesOne-and-doneCrashers
Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32
Ottawa: 13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32
New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32
New Jersey: 9.6% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32
- Breakdowns avoidedFire drillComposed
Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 605th of 32
Ottawa: 0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32
New Jersey: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32
New Jersey: 0.95 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32
- PaceSlogTrack meet
Ottawa: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32
Ottawa: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32
New Jersey: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32
New Jersey: 86.4 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32
- Shot volumeSelectiveRelentless
Ottawa: 54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32
Ottawa: 51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32
New Jersey: 64.4 shot attempts per 605th of 32
New Jersey: 70.3 shot attempts per 602nd of 32
- Shot qualityHopefulDangerous
Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32
Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32
New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32
New Jersey: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32
Show all 18 traitsHide the full set
Offense
- Shot volumeSelectiveRelentless
Ottawa: 54.7 shot attempts per 6021st of 32
Ottawa: 51.3 shot attempts per 6025th of 32
New Jersey: 64.4 shot attempts per 605th of 32
New Jersey: 70.3 shot attempts per 602nd of 32
- Shot qualityHopefulDangerous
Ottawa: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot7th of 32
Ottawa: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot13th of 32
New Jersey: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot23rd of 32
New Jersey: a 6.4% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32
- Second chancesOne-and-doneCrashers
Ottawa: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds7th of 32
Ottawa: 13.8% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32
New Jersey: 9.8% of chances come from rebounds31st of 32
New Jersey: 9.6% of chances come from rebounds16th of 32
- Off-turnover offensePatientOpportunist
Ottawa: 7.6% of chances come right after a turnover9th of 32
Ottawa: 14.3% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32
New Jersey: 7.8% of chances come right after a turnover3rd of 32
New Jersey: 13.1% of chances come right after a turnover5th of 32
- Shots from defensemenForward-ledActive D
Ottawa: 33.4% of shot attempts come from defensemen23rd of 32
Ottawa: 29.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen29th of 32
New Jersey: 34.8% of shot attempts come from defensemen14th of 32
New Jersey: 34.3% of shot attempts come from defensemen17th of 32
- Shots from in closeFrom distanceIn close
Ottawa: 30.6% of shots come from within 20 feet17th of 32
Ottawa: 29.5% of shots come from within 20 feet24th of 32
New Jersey: 29.3% of shots come from within 20 feet28th of 32
New Jersey: 30.7% of shots come from within 20 feet21st of 32
Defense
- Shot suppressionPorousStingy
Ottawa: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32
Ottawa: 58.3 shot attempts allowed per 6023rd of 32
New Jersey: 54.1 shot attempts allowed per 6011th of 32
New Jersey: 48.9 shot attempts allowed per 608th of 32
- Quality allowedExposedSheltered
Ottawa: a 6.2% chance of scoring on the average shot against10th of 32
Ottawa: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against18th of 32
New Jersey: a 6.5% chance of scoring on the average shot against26th of 32
New Jersey: a 6.8% chance of scoring on the average shot against25th of 32
- Breakdowns avoidedFire drillComposed
Ottawa: 0.37 defensive breakdowns per 605th of 32
Ottawa: 0.34 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32
New Jersey: 0.43 defensive breakdowns per 6025th of 32
New Jersey: 0.95 defensive breakdowns per 6030th of 32
- GoaltendingSieveWall
Ottawa: +0.06 goals saved above expected per 6025th of 32
Ottawa: +1.11 goals saved above expected per 606th of 32
New Jersey: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6014th of 32
New Jersey: −0.52 goals saved above expected per 6026th of 32
Tempo and edge
- PaceSlogTrack meet
Ottawa: 79.2 shots per 60, both teams combined27th of 32
Ottawa: 77.8 shots per 60, both teams combined21st of 32
New Jersey: 83.5 shots per 60, both teams combined8th of 32
New Jersey: 86.4 shots per 60, both teams combined6th of 32
- Forecheck pressurePassiveHounding
Ottawa: forecheck score 118 (100 is league average)5th of 32Ottawa: 27.9 forecheck plays recorded per 603rd of 32
Ottawa: forecheck score 116 (100 is league average)10th of 32Ottawa: 29.9 forecheck plays recorded per 607th of 32
New Jersey: forecheck score 94 (100 is league average)18th of 32New Jersey: 20.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6026th of 32
New Jersey: forecheck score 95 (100 is league average)16th of 32New Jersey: 21.9 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32
- PhysicalityFinesseBruising
Ottawa: hit score 117 (100 is league average)4th of 32Ottawa: 32.2 hits recorded per 602nd of 32
Ottawa: hit score 115 (100 is league average)8th of 32Ottawa: 35.6 hits recorded per 606th of 32
New Jersey: hit score 81 (100 is league average)30th of 32New Jersey: 20.6 hits recorded per 6030th of 32
New Jersey: hit score 76 (100 is league average)27th of 32New Jersey: 20.7 hits recorded per 6029th of 32
- DepthTop-heavyDeep
Ottawa: 40.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six28th of 32
Ottawa: 39.3% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six31st of 32
New Jersey: 41.1% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six24th of 32
New Jersey: 42.0% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six19th of 32
Special teams
- Power playHarmlessLethal
Ottawa: 7.6 expected goals per 60 on the power play11th of 32
Ottawa: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play14th of 32
New Jersey: 8.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play7th of 32
New Jersey: 6.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play22nd of 32
- Penalty killLeakyAirtight
Ottawa: 7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded7th of 32
Ottawa: 9.0 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded26th of 32
New Jersey: 7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded16th of 32
New Jersey: 9.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded30th of 32
- Power killBunkeredPredatory
Ottawa: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32
Ottawa: 1.6 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded6th of 32
New Jersey: 1.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded7th of 32
New Jersey: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded26th of 32
- DisciplineRecklessClean
Ottawa: 0.17 more penalties drawn than taken per 604th of 32
Ottawa: 0.25 more penalties drawn than taken per 6012th of 32
New Jersey: 0.09 more penalties drawn than taken per 6010th of 32
New Jersey: 1.48 more penalties drawn than taken per 602nd of 32
Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.
Lines and deployment
New Jersey is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.
Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.
Ottawa Senators
- L17:07 a game
- Creates
- 2.95
- Allows
- 2.24
- Share
- 56.9%
- Off. zone draws
- 27%
- L27:41 a gamein 3 of last 4
F. ZetterlundD. CozensW. Eklund
- Creates
- 2.78
- Allows
- 2.12
- Share
- 56.8%
- Off. zone draws
- 40%
- L37:50 a gamein 2 of last 4
W. FoegeleD. BathersonT. Stützle
- Creates
- 2.22
- Allows
- 2.35
- Share
- 48.6%
- Off. zone draws
- 40%
- L43:54 a gamein 2 of last 4
N. CousinsH. HodgsonS. Halliday
- Creates
- 2.52
- Allows
- 2.75
- Share
- 47.8%
- Off. zone draws
- 60%
- P113:13 a game
- Creates
- 2.90
- Allows
- 2.67
- Share
- 52.0%
- Off. zone draws
- 43%
- P28:24 a gamein 3 of last 4
- Creates
- 2.24
- Allows
- 2.56
- Share
- 46.6%
- Off. zone draws
- 53%
- P3New9:01 last game
- Creates
- 2.49
- Allows
- 2.45
- Share
- 50.4%
- Off. zone draws
- 43%
New Jersey Devils
- L19:39 a game
T. MeierN. HischierL. Evangelista
- Creates
- 3.32
- Allows
- 2.10
- Share
- 61.2%
- Off. zone draws
- 55%
- L28:30 a game
E. RodriguesA. GritsyukD. Mercer
- Creates
- 2.90
- Allows
- 2.19
- Share
- 57.0%
- Off. zone draws
- 61%
- L39:22 a gamein 2 of last 4
- Creates
- 2.58
- Allows
- 2.26
- Share
- 53.2%
- Off. zone draws
- 62%
- L48:21 a game
- Creates
- 2.93
- Allows
- 2.50
- Share
- 53.9%
- Off. zone draws
- 80%
- P115:23 a game
- Creates
- 2.90
- Allows
- 2.30
- Share
- 55.8%
- Off. zone draws
- 67%
- P213:45 a game
- Creates
- 3.03
- Allows
- 2.47
- Share
- 55.1%
- Off. zone draws
- 58%
- P310:39 a game
- Creates
- 2.49
- Allows
- 2.40
- Share
- 50.9%
- Off. zone draws
- 68%
Worth knowing
- Ottawa A. Zub has not played this season. He is a top-four defenseman.
- Ottawa J. Sanderson is out and has missed the last 4 games. He is a top-pair defenseman.
- Ottawa J. Spence has started killing penalties: on the ice for 41% of the team’s shorthanded time in 4 games, up from 4% last season.
- New Jersey C. Brown is out and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward. A. Mantha has taken his spot beside J. Bratt and J. Hughes.
Who New Jersey is likely to send against whom
Each strip shows how one New Jersey group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Ottawa’s, named in each box.
Ottawa’s lines tonightL1 Giroux · Amadio · PintoL2 Zetterlund · Cozens · EklundL3 Foegele · Batherson · StützleL4 Cousins · Hodgson · Halliday
New Jersey forward lines against Ottawa forward lines
- L1Meier · Hischier · EvangelistaOTT L128%OTT L216%OTT L330%OTT L427%
- L2Rodrigues · Gritsyuk · MercerOTT L139%OTT L230%OTT L319%OTT L411%
- L3Glass · Boqvist · LombardiOTT L116%OTT L238%OTT L332%OTT L414%
- L4Mantha · Bratt · HughesOTT L126%OTT L230%OTT L314%OTT L430%
New Jersey defense pairs against Ottawa forward lines
- P1Pesce · HughesOTT L136%OTT L217%OTT L332%OTT L415%
- P2Hamilton · SiegenthalerOTT L119%OTT L236%OTT L326%OTT L420%
- P3Dillon · ChisholmOTT L125%OTT L235%OTT L36%OTT L435%
Based on 3 New Jersey home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.
Special teams
Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.
Ottawa power play against New Jersey penalty kill
Ottawa power play
7.6 expected goals per 60 · 11th of 32
New Jersey penalty kill
7.4 expected goals allowed per 60 · 16th of 32
Ottawa power play
PP151% of the time
Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60
- T. ChabotQuarterback
- D. Cozensboth unitsTrigger
- C. GirouxDistributor
- S. HallidayNet-front
- F. Zetterlund
PP249% of the time
Creates 8.0 expected goals per 60
- C. YakemchukQuarterback
- D. Cozensboth units
- T. StützleDistributor
- D. BathersonTrigger
- W. Eklund
New Jersey penalty kill
Starts the kill
Second wave
- N. Hischier9 of 10 kills · 0:55 a kill
- E. Rodrigues8 of 10 kills · 0:47 a kill
- J. Bratt4 of 10 kills · 0:24 a kill
- D. HamiltonD9 of 10 kills · 0:49 a kill
- J. SiegenthalerD8 of 10 kills · 0:52 a kill
- L. HughesD5 of 10 kills · 0:28 a kill
Spot duty
- A. Gritsyuk2 of 10 kills · 0:32 a kill
- T. Meier1 of 10 kills · 0:34 a kill
- D. ChisholmD1 of 10 kills · 1:32 a kill
New Jersey power play against Ottawa penalty kill
New Jersey power play
8.2 expected goals per 60 · 7th of 32
Ottawa penalty kill
7.0 expected goals allowed per 60 · 7th of 32
New Jersey power play
PP164% of the time
Creates 6.5 expected goals per 60
- L. HughesQuarterback
- J. HughesDistributor
- N. HischierTrigger
- L. EvangelistaNet-front
- J. BrattNet-front
PP233% of the time
Creates 7.5 expected goals per 60
- D. HamiltonQuarterback
- T. MeierTrigger
- E. Rodrigues
- A. Mantha
- A. GritsyukDistributor
Ottawa penalty kill
Starts the kill
- T. Stützle13 of 14 kills · 0:59 a kill
- C. Giroux11 of 14 kills · 0:24 a kill · takes the draw
- N. MatinpaloD12 of 14 kills · 1:10 a kill
- T. KlevenD11 of 14 kills · 1:10 a kill
Second wave
- S. Pinto13 of 14 kills · 1:02 a kill
- M. Amadio11 of 14 kills · 0:58 a kill
- W. Foegele8 of 14 kills · 0:25 a kill
- T. ChabotD13 of 14 kills · 1:00 a kill
- J. SpenceD13 of 14 kills · 0:49 a kill
Spot duty
- R. Greig5 of 14 kills · 0:45 a kill
- N. Cousins3 of 14 kills · 0:22 a kill
Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.
Goaltending
Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?
L. Ullmark50 starts · 1266 shots, this season and last
−1.2 goals saved above expected
- Low-danger save %
- .980 643 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .881 438 shots
- High-danger save %
- .627 185 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 25
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0.32
- Quality starts
- 62%
S. Ersson32 starts · 788 shots, this season and last
−11.8 goals saved above expected
- Low-danger save %
- .972 387 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .818 275 shots
- High-danger save %
- .675 126 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 24.3
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0.28
- Quality starts
- 38%
Helping, or hung out to dry?
J. Allen40 starts · 1109 shots, this season and last
+13.0 goals saved above expected
- Low-danger save %
- .980 545 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .907 386 shots
- High-danger save %
- .657 178 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 28.1
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0.38
- Quality starts
- 58%
N. Daws4 starts · 119 shots, this season and last
−1.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate
- Low-danger save %
- 1.000 53 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .905 42 shots
- High-danger save %
- .583 24 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 29.4
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0.99
- Quality starts
- 50%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
- Stopping more than expectedSieveWall
- L. Ullmark: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 50 starts
- S. Ersson: −11.8 goals saved above expected in 32 starts
- J. Allen: +13.0 goals saved above expected in 40 starts
- N. Daws: −1.2 goals saved above expected in 4 starts (too few starts to place)
- How busy he isQuietUnder siege
- L. Ullmark: 25 shots faced per 60
- S. Ersson: 24.3 shots faced per 60
- J. Allen: 28.1 shots faced per 60
- N. Daws: 29.4 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
- How dangerous the shots areShelteredExposed
- L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 6.9% chance of going in
- S. Ersson: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
- J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.2% chance of going in
- N. Daws: the average shot he faces has a 7.7% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
- Breakdowns in front of himRareConstant
- L. Ullmark: 0.32 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
- S. Ersson: 0.28 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
- J. Allen: 0.38 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
- N. Daws: 0.99 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
- Waiting between shotsSteady workLong waits
- L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 83 seconds between shots
- S. Ersson: a typical wait of 85 seconds between shots
- J. Allen: a typical wait of 70 seconds between shots
- N. Daws: a typical wait of 62 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
- Night-to-night steadinessStreakySteady
- L. Ullmark: a quality start 62% of the time
- S. Ersson: a quality start 38% of the time
- J. Allen: a quality start 58% of the time
- N. Daws: a quality start 50% of the time (too few starts to place)
L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
S. Ersson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
N. Daws, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
L. Ullmark3 starts · 68 shots, this season
+4.8 goals saved above expected
- Low-danger save %
- 1.000 31 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .935 31 shots
- High-danger save %
- .833 6 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 25.5
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0
- Quality starts
- 100%
S. Ersson1 start · 44 shots, this season
−0.4 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate
- Low-danger save %
- .955 22 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .929 14 shots
- High-danger save %
- .625 8 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 33.9
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0.77
- Quality starts
- 0%
Helping, or hung out to dry?
J. Allen3 starts · 77 shots, this season
+0.1 goals saved above expected
- Low-danger save %
- .971 34 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .862 29 shots
- High-danger save %
- .786 14 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 25.5
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 0
- Quality starts
- 67%
N. Daws1 start · 32 shots, this season
−2.2 goals saved above expected too few starts to rate
- Low-danger save %
- 1.000 12 shots
- Medium-danger save %
- .818 11 shots
- High-danger save %
- .556 9 shots
- Shots faced per 60
- 32.1
- Defensive breakdowns per 60
- 2
- Quality starts
- 0%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
- Stopping more than expectedSieveWall
- L. Ullmark: +4.8 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
- S. Ersson: −0.4 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: +0.1 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
- N. Daws: −2.2 goals saved above expected in 1 start (too few starts to place)
- How busy he isQuietUnder siege
- L. Ullmark: 25.5 shots faced per 60
- S. Ersson: 33.9 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: 25.5 shots faced per 60
- N. Daws: 32.1 shots faced per 60 (too few starts to place)
- How dangerous the shots areShelteredExposed
- L. Ullmark: the average shot he faces has a 7.3% chance of going in
- S. Ersson: the average shot he faces has a 7.8% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: the average shot he faces has a 7.5% chance of going in
- N. Daws: the average shot he faces has a 9.0% chance of going in (too few starts to place)
- Breakdowns in front of himRareConstant
- L. Ullmark: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
- S. Ersson: 0.77 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
- N. Daws: 2 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60 (too few starts to place)
- Waiting between shotsSteady workLong waits
- L. Ullmark: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
- S. Ersson: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: a typical wait of 71 seconds between shots
- N. Daws: a typical wait of 47 seconds between shots (too few starts to place)
- Night-to-night steadinessStreakySteady
- L. Ullmark: a quality start 100% of the time
- S. Ersson: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
- J. Allen: a quality start 67% of the time
- N. Daws: a quality start 0% of the time (too few starts to place)
L. Ullmark, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
S. Ersson, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
J. Allen, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
N. Daws, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start
The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.
Where the goals come from
How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.
- Everyday even-strength play53.4%57%
- Power play22.6%20.4%
- Rebound7.2%3%
- Empty net6.5%7.7%
- Off a turnover4.1%4.3%
- Goalie pulled2.4%4.3%
- Shorthanded2.4%2.6%
- Off a faceoff win1.4%0.9%
292 Ottawa goals and 235 New Jersey goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.
- Everyday even-strength play58.3%40%
- Power play25%40%
- Rebound8.3%10%
- Empty net0%0%
- Off a turnover0%10%
- Goalie pulled0%0%
- Shorthanded8.3%0%
- Off a faceoff win0%0%
12 Ottawa goals and 10 New Jersey goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.
- Everyday even-strength play54.3%58.5%
- Power play23.4%17.7%
- Rebound6.8%7.9%
- Empty net4.5%5.7%
- Off a turnover6.8%6%
- Goalie pulled1.5%2.6%
- Shorthanded1.9%1.1%
- Off a faceoff win0.8%0.4%
265 Ottawa goals and 265 New Jersey goals allowed this season and last. Each row has its own scale.
- Everyday even-strength play33.3%50%
- Power play33.3%28.6%
- Rebound0%0%
- Empty net11.1%0%
- Off a turnover22.2%7.1%
- Goalie pulled0%7.1%
- Shorthanded0%7.1%
- Off a faceoff win0%0%
9 Ottawa goals and 14 New Jersey goals allowed this season. Each row has its own scale.
These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.
Data notes
- Sources. Game data from the NHL; expected goals from this site’s own model, cross-checked against MoneyPuck.com.
- Early season. Ottawa has played 4 games and New Jersey 4, so most numbers blend this season with last. The season switch at the top shows this season alone.
- Percentiles and ranks compare a team or player with the rest of the league: 90 means better than 90% of the league at that thing.
- Blind spots. Public game data doesn’t record passes before a shot, where defenders are standing, or rushes up the ice, so the site shows none of those.
- Hits, giveaways and takeaways depend on each arena’s scorer; anything built on them is arena-adjusted. How it works.
- Key players for each side are on the team pages.
Team pages: Ottawa Senators · New Jersey Devils