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COL

Colorado Avalanche

3-1-0

DAL

Dallas Stars

2-2-0

Has last change

Tuesday, October 13

8:30 PM ET · American Airlines Center

The short version

Before the game

MacKinnon’s favourite opponent

The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. The Avalanche are 3-1-0. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and Dallas has home ice. Dallas can tip it if their penalty kill holds up.

The Stars have won two in a row, the last a 4-0 rout of Buffalo. The Avalanche are 3-1-0. Colorado has controlled the play far better over recent games and Dallas has home ice. Dallas can still swing it if their penalty kill holds up.

It’s strength against strength: the Stars for the power play, the Avalanche at the penalty kill. The Stars and the Avalanche sit at opposite ends for shots from in close.

Who to watch

  • Old teamJoel Kiviranta faces Colorado for the first time since leaving.
  • Owns themNathan MacKinnon has a point in ten straight games against Dallas, and 18 points in his last eleven against them.
  • Still outM. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and hasn’t played yet this season.
  • Slow startWyatt Johnston is still looking for his first goal of the season.

  1. Best against best

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for the power play, and the Avalanche are one of the league’s best at the penalty kill. Our lean: the Stars’ power play wins out. Power plays usually beat kills in these spots.

    The call The Stars’ power play creates more than the league-average 7.5 expected goals per 60 against the Avalanche.

    Dallas 3rd for the power play (9.0 expected goals per 60) · Colorado 2nd for the penalty kill

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  2. Strength against strength

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for chance quality, and the Avalanche are one of the league’s best at preventing dangerous shots. We’ll side with the Avalanche’s defense.

    The call The Avalanche keep the Stars’ chances less dangerous than the league average (a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot).

    Dallas 4th for chance quality (a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot) · Colorado 2nd for preventing dangerous shots

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

  3. The Stars get in close; the Avalanche shoot from distance

    The Stars are one of the league’s best for shots from in close, at the close-range end; the Avalanche are one of the league’s worst, at the long-range end. Expect that gap to show.

    The call The Stars take a bigger share of their shots from within 20 feet than the Avalanche.

    Shots from in close: Dallas 2nd, Colorado 31st

    Style fingerprint · this season blended with last · 4 and 4 games this season

These calls are written by fixed rules from the numbers below, and saved as they stand at puck drop. After the game, each one will be checked against what happened.

Style fingerprints

How Colorado and Dallas play, trait by trait, on the same scales.

Colorado AvalancheDallas StarsLeague averageLikely range

Each scale runs from the league’s lowest team on the left to its highest on the right. Numbers blend last season with the 4 and 4 games played so far; traits that take longer to settle lean more on last season.

This season only: 4 games for Colorado, 4 for Dallas. Expect these to swing a lot, which is why the likely ranges are so wide.

The biggest differences

Show all 18 traitsHide the full set

Offense

  • Shot volume
    SelectiveRelentless

    • Colorado: 70.2 shot attempts per 601st of 32

      Colorado: 69.3 shot attempts per 604th of 32

    • Dallas: 53.8 shot attempts per 6024th of 32

      Dallas: 56.9 shot attempts per 6013th of 32

  • Shot quality
    HopefulDangerous

    • Colorado: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot20th of 32

      Colorado: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot21st of 32

    • Dallas: a 6.7% chance of scoring on the average shot4th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.1% chance of scoring on the average shot22nd of 32

  • Second chances
    One-and-doneCrashers

    • Colorado: 10.4% of chances come from rebounds8th of 32

      Colorado: 5.9% of chances come from rebounds26th of 32

    • Dallas: 10.5% of chances come from rebounds4th of 32

      Dallas: 12.0% of chances come from rebounds13th of 32

  • Off-turnover offense
    PatientOpportunist

    • Colorado: 7.7% of chances come right after a turnover6th of 32

      Colorado: 10.6% of chances come right after a turnover11th of 32

    • Dallas: 7.0% of chances come right after a turnover25th of 32

      Dallas: 8.2% of chances come right after a turnover16th of 32

  • Shots from defensemen
    Forward-ledActive D

    • Colorado: 37.7% of shot attempts come from defensemen2nd of 32

      Colorado: 34.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen15th of 32

    • Dallas: 34.1% of shot attempts come from defensemen20th of 32

      Dallas: 32.6% of shot attempts come from defensemen21st of 32

  • Shots from in close
    From distanceIn close

    • Colorado: 27.5% of shots come from within 20 feet31st of 32

      Colorado: 25.6% of shots come from within 20 feet27th of 32

    • Dallas: 33.0% of shots come from within 20 feet2nd of 32

      Dallas: 33.1% of shots come from within 20 feet14th of 32

Defense

  • Shot suppression
    PorousStingy

    • Colorado: 53.7 shot attempts allowed per 609th of 32

      Colorado: 56.0 shot attempts allowed per 6019th of 32

    • Dallas: 53.6 shot attempts allowed per 607th of 32

      Dallas: 51.8 shot attempts allowed per 6010th of 32

  • Quality allowed
    ExposedSheltered

    • Colorado: a 5.9% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

      Colorado: a 5.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against2nd of 32

    • Dallas: a 6.3% chance of scoring on the average shot against17th of 32

      Dallas: a 6.6% chance of scoring on the average shot against21st of 32

  • Breakdowns avoided
    Fire drillComposed

    • Colorado: 0.40 defensive breakdowns per 6014th of 32

      Colorado: 0.61 defensive breakdowns per 6022nd of 32

    • Dallas: 0.39 defensive breakdowns per 6011th of 32

      Dallas: 0.00 defensive breakdowns per 601st of 32

  • Goaltending
    SieveWall

    • Colorado: +0.12 goals saved above expected per 6013th of 32

      Colorado: −0.50 goals saved above expected per 6024th of 32

    • Dallas: +0.14 goals saved above expected per 607th of 32

      Dallas: +1.16 goals saved above expected per 603rd of 32

Tempo and edge

  • Pace
    SlogTrack meet

    • Colorado: 89.0 shots per 60, both teams combined1st of 32

      Colorado: 92.1 shots per 60, both teams combined2nd of 32

    • Dallas: 74.5 shots per 60, both teams combined32nd of 32

      Dallas: 72.2 shots per 60, both teams combined29th of 32

  • Forecheck pressure
    PassiveHounding

    • Colorado: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Colorado: 20.7 forecheck plays recorded per 6024th of 32

      Colorado: forecheck score 86 (100 is league average)22nd of 32Colorado: 21.2 forecheck plays recorded per 6023rd of 32

    • Dallas: forecheck score 93 (100 is league average)20th of 32Dallas: 21.1 forecheck plays recorded per 6021st of 32

      Dallas: forecheck score 92 (100 is league average)18th of 32Dallas: 22.5 forecheck plays recorded per 6018th of 32

  • Physicality
    FinesseBruising

    • Colorado: hit score 85 (100 is league average)27th of 32Colorado: 22.5 hits recorded per 6028th of 32

      Colorado: hit score 86 (100 is league average)24th of 32Colorado: 24.9 hits recorded per 6025th of 32

    • Dallas: hit score 96 (100 is league average)21st of 32Dallas: 26.0 hits recorded per 6018th of 32

      Dallas: hit score 99 (100 is league average)17th of 32Dallas: 29.2 hits recorded per 6017th of 32

  • Depth
    Top-heavyDeep

    • Colorado: 40.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six30th of 32

      Colorado: 41.2% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six21st of 32

    • Dallas: 41.8% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six18th of 32

      Dallas: 42.7% of forward ice time at 5-on-5 goes to the bottom six15th of 32

Special teams

  • Power play
    HarmlessLethal

    • Colorado: 7.2 expected goals per 60 on the power play21st of 32

      Colorado: 6.7 expected goals per 60 on the power play18th of 32

    • Dallas: 9.0 expected goals per 60 on the power play3rd of 32

      Dallas: 10.3 expected goals per 60 on the power play2nd of 32

  • Penalty kill
    LeakyAirtight

    • Colorado: 6.6 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded2nd of 32

      Colorado: 4.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded4th of 32

    • Dallas: 6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded5th of 32

      Dallas: 3.4 expected goals allowed per 60 shorthanded1st of 32

  • Power kill
    BunkeredPredatory

    • Colorado: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded24th of 32

      Colorado: 0.0 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded30th of 32

    • Dallas: 0.7 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded28th of 32

      Dallas: 0.1 expected goals created per 60 shorthanded27th of 32

  • Discipline
    RecklessClean

    • Colorado: 0.15 more penalties drawn than taken per 605th of 32

      Colorado: 0.50 more penalties drawn than taken per 608th of 32

    • Dallas: 0.08 more penalties taken than drawn per 6022nd of 32

      Dallas: 0.25 more penalties taken than drawn per 6019th of 32

Forecheck pressure and physicality are arena-adjusted scores; switch “Hits and takeaways” to Raw in the settings to see the numbers as recorded. How the arena adjustment works.

Lines and deployment

Dallas is at home, so their coach changes last and chooses who plays against whom.

How good, against the same line or pair on other teamsHow much, low to high (not good or bad)

Lines and pairs are numbered by 5-on-5 ice time together over each team’s last 10 games (4 and 4 so far), with each older game counting half as much as the one after it, so the latest combinations come first. With so few games, each group’s results are pulled toward the average for its line number.

Colorado Avalanche

Dallas Stars

Worth knowing

  • Dallas M. Duchene is out long term (lower body injury) and has not played this season. He is a top-six forward.

Who Dallas is likely to send against whom

Each strip shows how one Dallas group’s 5-on-5 time at home has been split across opponents’ four forward lines. Tonight those lines are Colorado’s, named in each box.

Colorado’s lines tonightL1 Schwartz · Svechkov · HughesL2 Kadri · Lehkonen · MacKinnonL3 Nelson · Landeskog · NecasL4 Roy · Kelly · L'Heureux

Dallas forward lines against Colorado forward lines

  • L1Benn · Hintz · RobertsonCOL L152%COL L216%COL L39%COL L423%
  • L2Seguin · Hryckowian · HyryCOL L130%COL L216%COL L335%COL L420%
  • L3Rantanen · Steel · JohnstonCOL L140%COL L228%COL L39%COL L422%
  • L4Blackwell · Faksa · BäckCOL L125%COL L235%COL L315%COL L426%

Dallas defense pairs against Colorado forward lines

  • P1Lundkvist · HarleyCOL L138%COL L223%COL L319%COL L420%
  • P2Myers · BichselCOL L128%COL L223%COL L317%COL L432%
  • P3Lindell · HeiskanenCOL L158%COL L218%COL L313%COL L411%

Based on 2 Dallas home games this season, so treat it as a habit forming, not a certainty. Faded rows have under ten minutes. With no line matching, each group would face an opposing line about as often as that line is on the ice; a number well above that means the coach is sending that group out against it on purpose.

Special teams

Each power play set against the penalty killers it will face.

Show

Colorado power play against Dallas penalty kill

  • Colorado power play

    7.2 expected goals per 60 · 21st of 32

  • Dallas penalty kill

    6.8 expected goals allowed per 60 · 5th of 32

Colorado power play

PP171% of the time

Creates 6.3 expected goals per 60

  • C. MakarQuarterback
  • M. NecasDistributor
  • T. Hughes
  • N. MacKinnonTrigger
  • G. LandeskogNet-front

PP229% of the time

Creates 7.9 expected goals per 60

  • D. ToewsQuarterback
  • N. KadriDistributor
  • J. Schwartz
  • A. LehkonenTrigger
  • S. MalinskiPoint

 

Where Colorado’s last 140 power-play shots came from. Bigger dots are more dangerous.

Dallas penalty kill

Starts the kill

Second wave

Spot duty

Units and penalty-kill roles use each team’s last 10 games; power-play role tags use this season and last, counting only games with the player’s current team; the map shows the last 140 power-play shots. Point at a power-play name to see his shots on the map.

Goaltending

Is each goalie stopping more than he should, and what is his team asking him to face?

Showagainst

M. Blackwood39 starts · 1009 shots, this season and last

+5.4 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.975 527 shots
Medium-danger save %
.874 348 shots
High-danger save %
.694 134 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.9
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.39
Quality starts
67%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodS. WedgewoodJ. OettingerC. DeSmith

J. Oettinger55 starts · 1433 shots, this season and last

+12.3 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.977 755 shots
Medium-danger save %
.861 476 shots
High-danger save %
.718 202 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.36
Quality starts
62%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: +5.4 goals saved above expected in 39 starts
    • J. Oettinger: +12.3 goals saved above expected in 55 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 25.9 shots faced per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 25.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 6.6% chance of going in
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.0% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0.39 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 0.36 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 77 seconds between shots
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 80 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 67% of the time
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 62% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

M. Blackwood3 starts · 76 shots, this season

−1.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
.953 43 shots
Medium-danger save %
.857 28 shots
High-danger save %
.600 5 shots
Shots faced per 60
25.4
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0.33
Quality starts
33%

Helping, or hung out to dry?

System and goalie both goodGoalie bailing them outGoalie giving back what the system earnsTrouble everywhereTeam allows fewer chances ← → more chancesM. BlackwoodS. WedgewoodJ. OettingerC. DeSmith

J. Oettinger3 starts · 61 shots, this season

+4.5 goals saved above expected

Low-danger save %
1.000 35 shots
Medium-danger save %
1.000 18 shots
High-danger save %
.750 8 shots
Shots faced per 60
20.5
Defensive breakdowns per 60
0
Quality starts
100%
Show the full goalie comparisonHide the full goalie comparison
  • Stopping more than expected
    SieveWall
    • M. Blackwood: −1.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
    • J. Oettinger: +4.5 goals saved above expected in 3 starts
  • How busy he is
    QuietUnder siege
    • M. Blackwood: 25.4 shots faced per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 20.5 shots faced per 60
  • How dangerous the shots are
    ShelteredExposed
    • M. Blackwood: the average shot he faces has a 5.4% chance of going in
    • J. Oettinger: the average shot he faces has a 7.1% chance of going in
  • Breakdowns in front of him
    RareConstant
    • M. Blackwood: 0.33 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
    • J. Oettinger: 0 defensive breakdowns in front of him per 60
  • Waiting between shots
    Steady workLong waits
    • M. Blackwood: a typical wait of 81 seconds between shots
    • J. Oettinger: a typical wait of 76 seconds between shots
  • Night-to-night steadiness
    StreakySteady
    • M. Blackwood: a quality start 33% of the time
    • J. Oettinger: a quality start 100% of the time

M. Blackwood, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

J. Oettinger, night to night: goals saved above expected in each start

−3 (bad night)0+3 (stole it)

The menus list every goalie on each team, busiest this season first; the site does not yet know who will start. Expected-goal models can’t see passes before a shot, so a goalie whose team gives up many cross-ice passes looks worse here than he really is.

Where the goals come from

How each team’s goals are scored, or allowed, against the league average.

Show goals
ColoradoDallasLeague average
  • Everyday even-strength play57.3%52.7%
  • Power play14.5%26.5%
  • Rebound8.8%7%
  • Empty net7.9%4%
  • Off a turnover6%2%
  • Goalie pulled2.7%3.7%
  • Shorthanded1.1%1.3%
  • Off a faceoff win1.6%2.7%

365 Colorado goals and 298 Dallas goals scored this season and last. Each row has its own scale.

  • Everyday even-strength play69.6%80%
  • Power play17.4%10%
  • Rebound4.3%0%
  • Empty net0%0%
  • Off a turnover8.7%10%
  • Goalie pulled0%0%
  • Shorthanded0%0%
  • Off a faceoff win0%0%

23 Colorado goals and 10 Dallas goals scored this season. Each row has its own scale.

These mixes are mostly luck: over three seasons, teams’ goals came from much the same places, and most of the differences here didn’t last. Each team page shows how much luck alone can move each row.

Data notes

Team pages: Colorado Avalanche · Dallas Stars